Have you ever watched one of the big celebrity Poker Players playing a hand for a 1 or 2 million dollar pot on TV? You see them sitting there calmly, quietly, thinking about what they will do next. Sometimes it’s as if they drift off and away to some other place in their head, hard at work, calculating their next move.
“Should I get out now - or should I up the bet by another 1 million?” That’s what they are doing. But have you ever asked yourself HOW they make a decision like that? I mean, what is it they are looking at to help them make the correct decision and win that 2 million dollars.
Well, every one of these big, professional players is looking at the same thing. They are looking at THE ODDS of the game, and the odds of winning with the cards they are holding in their hands.
Now that player might decide to play it AGAINST THE ODDS, or he or she might decide to go WITH THE ODDS. But the truth remains: THEY KNOW THE ODDS RIGHT DOWN TO THE EXACT % POINT.
That’s what every great poker player can do and that is exactly what a good, professional Baccarat Player can do as well.
Yet, this is a subject that causes a great deal of debate and confusion among Baccarat Players. There are far too many “opinions” on the subject and far to little understanding of the facts. Some Baccarat players have been so confused by all of the debates and opinions they don't believe it’s even possible to know and to understand the odds at play in the game of Baccarat.
Too often you hear the same old statement, “It’s just a 50 – 50 game!” And they never seem to want to question that statement or do the work to find out if it is true or if it is not true. So let’s clear this subject up simply and quickly, so that all of our Baccarat Masters Members have a much better understanding of this subject.
To begin, we have to understand a word that might be new to some of you. The word is “permutation”. And it is defined as follows:
PERMUTATION: “Is the way several possible variations in which a set of numbers can be ordered or arranged.” That’s what the dictionary tells us. But let's break it down and make it very, very easy to understand. Lets use some coin flips as an example.
We have all heard that with any ONE coin flip the odds are 50 -50. It will be a heads or a tails – period. AND THAT IS TRUE. There are only two possibilities, H or T and either can happen so 100% divided by 2 = 50% - 50% - No argument - no debate there.
But the moment you say, “How about 2 heads in a row” that is called a PERMUTATION. Do you see, now you want the results to come out in a an exact order. You want them arranged in a particular way. You want H – H to happen. Of all of the possible ways that Heads and Tails could happen you want this one particular result. You want 2 heads in a row.
AND THAT EXACT PERMUTATION CHANGES THE ODDS DRAMATICALLY.
Now every Baccarat player will noticed that BBB or PPP do not happen quite as often as single chops, like B P B P. And they are right, they do not happen as often over TIME. Yes, it could happen in one shoe, PPP or BBB - BANG. BANG. BANG! But the ODDS of it happening more often than B – P is not 50 -50. In fact, here are the actual odds in the game of Baccarat. And please notice I said, “In the game of Baccarat.” I did not say, “In every shoe or in any one shoe.”
1s
B or P
50%
2s
BB or PP
25%
3s
BBB or PPP
12.5%
4s
BBBB or PPPP
6.25%
And so on and so on, the longer the streak (Permutation) the lower the odds are that it will continue.
And that's the Baccarat Mind Bender. Yes! the next ONE hand will be B or P - just like any single coin flip. But over TIME (100 hands for example) a BBB permutation will NOT happen 50% of the time. And that's the mind-bender that leaves too, too many Baccarat players broke and confused.
This is not my, or anyone else’s opinion. It is a simple matter of mathematical fact. It is built into the game of Baccarat. So if you want to debate or challenge it please go find a mathematician to debate it with.
So the next time someone says to you that the next hand is always a 50 -50 bet you can just nod your head and say yes it is. (when all you are looking at is one event, one coin flip, and one result) But do not be fooled by that. Because now you know what a PERMUTATION is. And BB and BBB and BBBB are all permutations and they DO NOT happen 50% of the time. The odds just changed, dramatically.
Now what you can do with this knowledge and how you use it to increase your baccarat profits is another subject completely. But it can be used to great benefit, to be sure. Just ask that poker player who won the World Series Of Poker last year if he knows about the odds of the game and how to use them. And I am confident he will look at you and say, “Dah.” Or he might ask you, “Would you jump out of a airplane without a parachute?”
Of course, he knows the odds and now you do as well.
Laurence
Copyright 2021